Contributors to and friends of The Blue Review are gathered at a secret, downtown Boise location tonight to live blog the election returns. We are gearing up in about an hour, as polling on the East Coast begins to wrap up. Check back here throughout the night for our updates.
Thanks for following along tonight folks!
My 2008 checklist for Obama’s presidency has a handful of marks on it… interesting to re-read: http://www.boiseweekly.com/boise/boise-weeklys-obama-wishlist/Content?oid=1013799
We are waiting to hear the President speak here at TBR HQ.
Mike Touchton brings up a good point about the race’s relatively early call. After 2000, with the networks calling states incorrectly early on, media elites have been sensitive about repeating mistakes of hastiness. I was a bit surprised the networks called Ohio as early as they did, and not surprised when representatives of the Romney campaign pushed back as they noted huge percentages were left to report. Interestingly, on more than one network, the so-called decision desks, who make the call, were called on air to account for their logic, and did so, explaining their logic. It was a memorable moment in the history of presidential media, to be sure.
As usual, the road to the white house goes through Ohio and Florida. This is also a lesson about how voting outcomes can fall within the margin of error in the polls. Florida went slightly for Obama (unexpected) and so did Ohio (expected). The result is a big electoral college win for Obama if the exit polls hold. Still, I’m surprised the race was called so early in either direction
Less than 100 precincts reported, but people splitting their votes on the education props in Idaho:
NON YES 54,907 46.1%
NON NO 64,261 53.9%
NON YES 77,502 54.5%
NON NO 64,813 45.5%
NON YES 42,144 36.2%
NON NO 74,386 63.8%
Via @jsmooth995: Ladies and gentlemen, tonight’s big winner: http://t.co/OKVXCed0
Curious that New York Times gives “the Networks” credence in calling the race, rather than referring to it’s own substantial data: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/07/us/politics/obama-romney-presidential-election-2012.html?hp&_r=0
CNN, MSNBC, Fox, and the Daily Show have all called it for Obama.
The Tea Party may have doomed the GOP tonight. Will the GOP heed this lesson or will it move further right in the name of ideological purity? Not a path to success…
Although it isn’t worth many points, Obama’s win in Iowa makes the night even more dismal for the Republicans. At this point, Romney can’t lose many other places and still wind up in the Oval Office next January.
The Daily Show’s live coverage just started online http://www.dailyshow.com
Four hours into poll watching and we still don’t have any announcements from the big battleground states. Obama’s wins in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania closed off various non-Ohio/Florida options for Governor Romney, though. And as the percentage of precincts reporting in the contested states near the 80s and 90s, those options seem ever fewer.
Perhaps we can get the name Bronco ‘Bama to stick: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjrthOPLAKM
Obama is heading for 320+ electoral votes. Dems pick up 3 seats in the Senate–a gift from the Tea Party.
Virginia looks to upset our 9-2 split on Obama picking it up.
Todd Akin relegated to history books. Read more here: http://thebluereview.org/ancient-akin-rape/
Polls closed in most of Idaho … won’t get returns until North Idaho shuts down in another hour #PacificTime
Donelley’s win in Indiana goes well for 5/11 of our predictors. Warren’s win works for 10/11.
I picked Florida for Romney, but it’s tied with about 80% of precincts reporting. If Florida breaks for Obama it’s going to be very tough for Romney to win
Nate Silver (live blogging at http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/live-blog-the-2012-presidential-election/) had predicted an Obama win in Florida by 2 hundredths of a percent; well within the margin of error. As Florida numbers come in, the back and forth on Florida makes the race exciting.
Sites we are watching for returns:
New York Times awesome map: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/live-coverage?hp
..and even awesomer flow chart: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president/scenarios
Politico has useful, though less slick, interface: http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/
Seattle Times, opens late, with savvy looking web interface: http://seattletimes.com/flatpages/politics/2012-washington-election-results.html
Todd Dvorak of Idaho AP is tweeting AP calls: http://twitter.com/tdvorak1
Melissa Davlin on the Liveblog at the Times-News: http://magicvalley.com/
Two more hours until polls close out here …
The Guardian live blog is good: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/06/us-election-2012-results-live-blog?fb=native
Not sure about NPR’s big board though: http://election2012.npr.org/bigboard/president.html
series of data from 11 people, many of which are live blogging the election, predicting various races in tonight’s election. The data was collected mostly today: http://www.quantitativepeace.com/blog/2012/11/election-predictions-2012.html
90 minutes or so after the first set of polls closed out east, we’ve seen results pouring in, but still no blockbuster news. Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina are still too close to call, and most likely will remain so well into the evening. New Jersey, which is less close in reality, is also delayed because of Hurricane Sandy-related troubles.
Will Virgil Goode throw Virginia to Obama? I voted for very popular Rep Virgil Goode twice while a resident of southwest Virginia. Obama might take VA if Goode (a conservative republican) pulls one or two percent of the vote away from Romney in the state. This could occur- we’ll find out in a few minutes!
Just posted a new feature from Emily Wakild on the breadth of presidential politics in Latin America, for a bit of contrast: http://thebluereview.org/women-students-and-the-latin-american-presidency/ … read it while you wait for Virginia to close…
I inquired at the polling place this morning about changing my Idaho voter registration back to “unaffiliated.” I had never been a member of any political organization until Idaho closed its primaries earlier this year (whether or not said political organization would have me as a member). I had to pick a party so that I could vote for a few of my friends in the primaries.
It’s easy enough to switch registration, but I didn’t feel like doing it at the polling place this morning. I’ll do it mañana.